Do Elections Affect the Real Estate Market?

Do Elections Affect the Real Estate Market?
By Heather McDermott, ABR® | H|M Home Team

As a realtor with 16 years of experience in the Phoenix real estate market, one question I often hear—especially as election season rolls around—is, “Do elections affect the real estate market?” It’s a valid concern for buyers and sellers alike, and the answer isn’t always straightforward. Let’s dive into the relationship between elections and real estate, what I’ve seen in the market over the years, and what you can do to make informed decisions during these uncertain times.

How Elections Influence the Market: Short-Term Uncertainty

During election years, I’ve noticed one thing consistently: people become cautious. Buyers, sellers, and even investors tend to take a “wait-and-see” approach, concerned about how new policies or leadership shifts will affect the economy, interest rates, and housing policies.

Uncertainty can cause the market to slow slightly during election cycles—particularly in the months leading up to the election. Buyers might pause their search, wondering if a change in government will bring better mortgage rates or incentives, while sellers might hesitate to list, hoping to capitalize on post-election stability. This pause, however, is often temporary.

What Happens After the Election?

Once the election results are finalized, the market usually regains its footing. Historically, home prices and market activity return to normal (or even pick up) within a few months. Buyers who delayed their search start re-entering the market, and sellers who waited decide to move forward with their plans.

If we look at past elections, the fundamentals of real estate—like supply and demand—are far more influential than politics. Housing is always in demand, regardless of which political party is in power. Phoenix, in particular, remains a hot market due to population growth, a strong job market, and attractive living conditions.

Policy Changes Can Have an Impact, But Not Overnight

It’s true that some elections can lead to policy changes that affect the real estate market over time. New regulations around taxes, lending, and housing programs could shift, but these changes rarely happen immediately. For example, federal policies on mortgage interest deductions, affordable housing programs, or incentives for first-time buyers can evolve over the years following an election, influencing future market conditions.

However, it’s important to remember that these shifts take time. For buyers and sellers right now, the election’s outcome should not be the deciding factor in whether to move forward with a real estate transaction.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

If you’re thinking about buying or selling, my advice is simple: don’t let the election cycle control your decisions. Trying to “time the market” based on politics can lead to missed opportunities. In Phoenix, market conditions—like interest rates, inventory, and buyer demand—are what truly drive real estate trends.

Interest rates, for example, are influenced more by the Federal Reserve and global economic trends than by political elections. In today’s market, acting when the right opportunity presents itself is more important than waiting to see who wins an election.

My Take as a Realtor in Phoenix

Over the years, I’ve worked with many clients through multiple election cycles, and the biggest takeaway I’ve seen is this: life doesn’t stop for elections. People still buy homes, relocate for new jobs, and make big life changes, whether it’s a presidential election or a midterm. Your personal circumstances—like a job change, growing family, or downsizing—should be the biggest factor in your real estate decisions.

If anything, uncertain times call for experienced guidance. That’s where the H|M Home Team comes in. I’m here to help you navigate the market, no matter the political climate. Whether it’s before or after an election, there are always ways to make informed and strategic real estate moves.

In Summary: Stay the Course, Trust the Process
While elections can cause some short-term hesitation, they don’t alter the long-term trajectory of the real estate market. The key is to focus on your goals and make decisions based on your personal needs—not on political headlines. If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, let’s chat about how we can position you for success, regardless of what’s happening in Washington.

Connect with me today:
www.connectwithheathermcdermott.com

If you want to understand what the real estate market is doing in your neighborhood if now is the right time for you to Sell or Buy.